ITC Q4 FY25 Results: Dividend Likely Amid Muted Profit Outlook
ITC Q4 FY25 Results are set to release on Thursday, May 22, and all eyes are on its dividend announcement and the performance across its major business verticals. Few analysts expect a flat or slightly lower PAT, muted FMCG growth, and sustained cigarette volumes. Investors are also hopeful that the board will recommend a final dividend along with the results, possibly accompanied by the record date declaration.
Muted Earnings Ahead: What Analysts Are Predicting
Brokerages suggest ITC’s profit after tax (PAT) for Q4 could remain flat or dip slightly on a year-on-year basis. They project a 7.5% decline in PAT to ₹4,643 crore and a 1% rise in revenue to ₹16,547 crore. Margins are expected to contract across the board.
Cigarette Business: A Stable Performer Amid Headwinds
ITC’s core cigarette segment is likely to remain steady, offering a cushion to the overall results.
- Cigarette volumes are expected to grow by 3% to 4.5% YoY, with sales increasing by 6%, according to Axis and Sharekhan.
- Morgan Stanley forecasts a 4% volume and 5% value growth. However, inflation in tobacco may weigh on margins.
- EBIT from cigarettes is projected to grow 2% YoY, showing stability even as margin pressures loom.
This segment continues to be a vital revenue and profit contributor despite regulatory risks and inflationary pressures.
FMCG, Agri & Paper Businesses: Mixed Trends Expected
ITC’s diversified portfolio paints a mixed picture. The FMCG division, which has grown rapidly in recent years, may see pressure on margins.
- Ccontinued strain due to rising costs of palm oil, maida, and weak pricing in notebooks.
- EBIT margin for FMCG is forecasted at 6%, as per Morgan Stanley, marginally above Q3FY25’s 5.9%.
In the agri segment, there’s some good news. Sales may jump by 20% YoY, mainly on a low base.
However, the paperboard and packaging business may remain weak due to import competition, with a modest 4.5% sales growth anticipated. Axis pegs this growth slightly higher at 5%.
Dividend Outlook: Final Payout May Be Announced
Investors are keenly waiting for ITC’s final dividend announcement for FY2025. The company has confirmed that the Board of Directors meeting on May 22 may consider recommending a final dividend.
If declared, the dividend amount and record date are likely to be announced alongside the Q4 results. This could boost stock sentiment, especially for long-term retail investors and mutual funds holding the stock for stable returns.
Also Read:
Tata Motors Dividend 2025: ₹6 Final Payout Announced, Record Date Set
Key Monitorables for Investors and Traders
Keep an eye on these major factors post-results:
- Rural vs urban demand recovery
- Raw material cost trends across FMCG and cigarettes
- Competitive pressures in the paper and FMCG sectors
- Management commentary on pricing strategies and volume outlooks
Given the expected muted earnings and sector-specific headwinds, traders may witness some volatility on the results day, especially if dividend expectations aren’t met.
ITC Q4 FY25 Results: Conclusion
While ITC’s Q4 FY2025 earnings may not excite on the profit front, stable cigarette performance and a possible final dividend could help balance market sentiment. Watch closely for management guidance and how different business verticals are poised for FY26.
Disclaimer: The views and investment insights provided here are based on publicly available information and do not constitute financial advice. Readers are advised to conduct their own research or consult certified financial experts before making investment decisions.
