Gold prices have shown significant momentum in both India and the U.S. over the past week. Investors eyeing gold price witnessed a rally fueled by global uncertainties, weakening dollar cues, and renewed geopolitical concerns. With prices hovering near record highs, traders and household investors alike are wondering: will the golden rally continue, or is a short-term correction on the cards?
Weekly Gold Price Performance: India and U.S. Markets React Strongly
In India, gold prices surge nearly ₹96,500 per 10 grams this past week while globally, spot gold hovered around $3,340 per ounce, touching new monthly highs. The gains were more pronounced in the latter half of the week, primarily driven by dovish signals from the U.S. Federal Reserve.
Domestic jewellers and retail buyers stayed cautious, but investor demand remained firm. On the international front, ETF inflows picked up after weeks of stagnation, indicating renewed institutional interest.
The rupee’s weakness against the dollar also contributed to higher domestic prices. Notably, the wedding season in India added a cultural push to gold demand, though buyers are becoming more price-sensitive.
Why Are Gold Prices Rising? Top Causes Behind This Rally
The rise in gold prices can be traced back to three primary global factors. First, escalating tensions in the Middle East—especially the Israel-Iran stand-off—& growing terror tensions between India and Pakistan boosted safe-haven demand. Second, the U.S. Fed’s softer-than-expected stance on interest rates signalled a possible rate cut in Q3, weakening the dollar.
Third, central banks across Asia, particularly China, have continued large-scale gold accumulation. This global demand, coupled with restrained supply, has added to the bullish sentiment.
In India, the RBI’s own gold holdings rose in April, indirectly strengthening investor confidence. Retail traders also moved funds from equities to gold due to volatile markets and the uncertain Lok Sabha election outcome.
Next Week’s Gold Outlook: Trend Forecast and Events to Watch
Going ahead, traders should brace for volatility. If the U.S. CPI inflation data due next week surprises on the higher side, it could strengthen the dollar and pressure gold prices. However, if inflation cools, gold may continue its upward journey.
Another major trigger is the FOMC commentary and any updates on interest rate projections. Also, keep an eye on India’s retail inflation figures, election-related market cues and India-Pakistan war situation.
What Indian Traders Should Do Now?
For traders and investors in India, it’s a time to stay alert. If you’re looking at short-term gains, wait for a dip and for long-term investors, any pullback can be used to accumulate gradually.
Remember, geopolitical news can move gold sharply overnight. So, managing risk through stop-losses and position sizing is vital.
Disclaimer: The views and investment insights provided here are based on publicly available information and do not constitute financial advice. Readers are advised to conduct their own research or consult certified financial experts before making investment decisions.
